BURMA: The Coming Tide

The Coming Tide

The first tide is coming- the Burmese regime will start its dirty jobs soon after its 60 days of political party registration period. The regime will outlaw NLD and capture hardliner NLD leaders. But the extreme tsunami will come after the first tide hits Burma, the tsunami being the tide of the people’s power.

Publishers of the Burmese journals have to send their content to the literature censorship board for approval before it is published. It takes at least one week to wait for the approval. The current NLD boycotting the election made the authorities very nervous and now they are forcing the publishers to put out news that the NLD decision is disrupting the election. If the journal writes what the censorship board wants, the journal is allowed to publish right away. As a result, Myanmar News Week and The Yagon Times distributed their journals on March 31, two days after the NLD decision. Others journals are still waiting for the approval to distribute.

Myanmar News Week Journal wrote “NLD’s decision not to participate in the election means it is refusing to follow the principle of democratic change, which allows the means of entering the election for the country and its people by peaceful and smoother way”. The same content was written in The Yangon Times. Most of the journals need to wait for at least one week for the approval but the aforementioned journals were approved right away, meaning the authorities wanted to brainwash the Burmese people that it is the NLD’s blame and not the authorities’.

Other journals are waiting from the approval from the censorship board to write about the NLD decision. One editor said, “If we write the same thing as Myanmar News Week and Yangon Time, I think they will allow us to publish our journal. They want us to write the same thing.”

On March 29, a hundred thirteen NLD party central committee members voted not to register for the election.

Above news prove that SPDC is now frustrated and trying to blame NLD for not participating in the election.

1. SPDC has carefully crafted and failed at their strategy to corner NLD to participate in the election without Aung San Suu Kyi.

2. First they released U Win Tin, a principled journalist who has sacrificed his life for the country by not compromising to any pressure for his belief in democracy and fairness. The NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe is a weak and persuadable man. Every time the regime pressured NLD, he compromised and accepted what the regime desired. On the other hand, U Win Tin is a man of principle, and the regime wants the NLD to split into two groups. They know Aung Shwe and Win Tin will collide with each other if they release Win Tin, and it happened. When Win Tin stayed in the NLD headquarters, Aung Shwe gave an excuse for his health and did not showed up for six months. But when the election laws came out, Aung Shwe came back to the office and said NLD needs to register, which Win Tin outright rejected.

The SPDC predicted one group will be led by their desired man Aung Shwe and their uncompromising enemy Win Tin will lead the NLD youth, which has been very active with full of fighting spirit. Aung Shwe and his men will kick out Win Tin’s group and enter the election. As we all know, SPDC’s plan did not work out that way. It is the wise decision made by NLD, especially a timely decision made by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Now NLD has to prepare against the next set of dirty tricks and pressure from SPDC.

1. Most of their active leaders and members will be captured.
2. Their offices will be forced to close down
3. The rest of NLD members will be closely monitored and harassed.

But there is a hope, people are now politically awakened, they have been sleeping for nearly 20 years after the four eights movement because under Aung Shwe leadership, NLD never stood up for what people want, his priority is the existence of the NLD party with a lack of policy matters.

Now NLD changed its course from one-sided compromising with the regime. They are now sticking up their Shwegonedine declaration, which has a fair offer to overcome the dead-lock between the regime and democratic opposition as a whole.

People want “Change” and the NLD decision gave them “Hope” to rise up again. In 1988, many thought it was impossible to fight against the BSPP government but it happened and General Ne Win finally stepped down.

Unlike 1988, the current political situation is far worse than in 1988. People are starving, Burma has lost its two crucial resources:

1. Human resources
2. Natural resources

Many forests and wild life have gone. Thai, Chinese, and Indonesian logging companies and Burmese tycoons like Tayza Htoo’s company have licenses to demolish forests with no regard to conservation. Burmese fishermen could not catch enough fish in the Burmese sea anymore because foreign fishing boats have over fished in Burmese waters. Many mines have run out of ores, even gas exploration is so successful, the Capital Rangoon does not have enough electricity and cooking gas for its people.

Many intellectuals leave the country when they have a chance to find jobs after graduation. Doctors, Engineers, Nurses, Chemists, Physicists, and more are all leaving the country by legal or illegal means. It has been a total brain drain after 1988. Factories were shut down and government privatization programs only benefited the rich who deeply support the regime.

If the NLD has a “Do or Die policy” by using 1990 Election mandate to form the government in an appropriate time, people will rise up and support the government. People are now very excited and ready to go with NLD, they need to capitalize on the chance by organizing its core members and draw a strategy as soon as possible before the 60 days period. One important thing is NLD has to be very careful not to make a drastic action before the 60 days dead line. If NLD announced to form a government before the dead line, the regime will definitely crush them. NLD should wait until the regime makes a move first by announcing NLD party as an illegal party. When it happened, the world will reject the regime’s 2010 election. Then NLD has to move to form a government by using 1990 election results.

Even under Chairman U Aung Shwe’s leadership while compromising with the regime, many NLD offices were closed down, many were put in prisons and the group had no right to call for its own party convention for more than 10 years. NLD does not need to worry about its image fading because it will still be recognized by the Burmese even if the regime outlaws NLD as an illegal organization. Burmese people and the world will still recognize NLD as a political party.

On the other hand, SPDC needs to show the world that the 2010 election is credible by releasing political prisoners before the election. They are not willing to change their laws and regulations but they could release all political prisoners before the election. SPDC is not releasing the election date yet and it is only 9 months left within the year to hold the election. Withholding this pivotal information shows that they still have no confidence in the election.

The problems SPDC has been facing within the election period are:

1. They have to show the world that it is free and fair.
2. Oppositions have freedom to organize the people without harassment from the government.
3. Independent newspapers and broadcasting need to established before the election.
4. Independent civic organizations should be allowed to form legally.

They are not going to allow 3 and 4.

Than Shwe clearly said in the Burma Independent day speech, “ Do not expect to get mature democracy after the election.” He already stated he will not give the people freedom after the election. It means he has a plan to win and still control the political power however necessary.

In conclusion, many prisoners in Burma prisons are filled with army deserters. It proves that the Army is suffering under cruel military rule. Who knows, maybe when people rise up for their rights under the new and strong NLD leadership, the army, navy and air force will join with the people because they themselves are part of the people who suffered so long.

Htun Aung Gyaw
March 31, 2010